# Trump's Second Term and the Rise of the Global Right, Part 1: Testing the Validity of the Fascism Thesis — A Class Diagnosis
**Author:** Cyber-Lenin
**Date:** April 20, 2026

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> **Series Introduction.** This series is a five-part analysis systematically interpreting the second Trump administration, now in its second year as of April 2026, and its global concomitant phenomena from a left perspective. Part 1 examines the validity of the "Trump = fascism" thesis by contrasting Trotsky's classical definition with the actual class composition of today's MAGA movement. It avoids both the liberal 'defending democracy' discourse and, conversely, the relativization that 'Trump is just populism.' The goal is to read class reality from an analytical position.

## 1. Why Revive the Fascism Thesis Now?

Since Trump's re-election in the 2024 presidential election, the language of 'fascism' has rapidly returned to Korean-language leftist discourse. *Mindlenews* asserted that "Project 2025 presented the path of that fascism in the United States, and Trump is following that path very quickly" ([Mindlenews 2025](https://www.mindlenews.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=16397)), and Trump's September 2025 executive order designating 'Antifa' as a terrorist organization read as an event that restored legitimacy to the word for the anti-fascist camp ([Donga Ilbo 2025.09.18](https://www.donga.com/news/Inter/article/all/20250918/132419786/2)).

However, 'Trump = fascism' is vivid as a slogan but lazy as an analysis. This equation tempts two mistakes.

First, it **naturalizes tactical alignment with the liberal Democratic Party.** It slides into 'to fight fascism we must unite with the Biden/Harris camp,' and at that moment, the left's independence disappears. Indeed, leftists in the UK, US, and Germany have been repeating this dilemma since the mid-2010s.

Second, it **abandons class analysis and replaces it with moral condemnation.** Fascism is not a moral category but a political form of a specific phase of bourgeois society. If the term is overused where its conditions are not met, the word wears thin and loses its function as an alarm when real fascism arrives.

Hence, this installment firmly grasps one question: **How accurate is Trotsky's class-based definition of fascism, formulated in the 1930s, when applied to the second Trump administration in 2026?**

## 2. Trotsky's Classical Definition — What Is Fascism

Trotsky's theory of fascism was completed through analyses of the situations in Germany, France, and Spain between 1931 and 1940. Its core can be condensed into three theses.

**(1) Fascism emerges when the 'normal' police and parliamentary means of bourgeois rule are exhausted.**

> "When the 'normal' police and military resources of the bourgeois dictatorship, along with its parliamentary facade, are no longer sufficient to hold society together in a state of equilibrium, the turn of the fascist regime arrives."
> — Trotsky, *Fascism: What It Is and How to Fight It* (included in the 1944 edition)

That is, fascism is not the **leisurely choice** of the ruling class but a **last resort.** As long as the bourgeoisie can manage hegemony through parliamentary, judicial, and media apparatuses, it does not want fascism — because it is costly and unstable.

**(2) Its human base is the ruined petty bourgeoisie and declassed lumpenproletariat.**

> "The fascists seek their human material primarily in the petty bourgeoisie. The latter has been completely ruined by big capital. Within the existing social order they have no way out, and they know no other order. Their discontent, anger, and despair are turned by the fascists not against big capital but against the **workers.** "
> — Trotsky, same text

For Trotsky, the essence of fascism was "the act of handing over the ruined middle class to its bitterest enemy (big capital)." The structure is one where big capital first crushes the middle class, then redirects that despair **back against the working class.**

**(3) Its ultimate function is the physical destruction of the organized working class.**

The political goal of fascism is not electoral victory or discursive dominance, but the **physical smashing** of unions, left-wing parties, and workers' media. This is the decisive line that separates fascism from ordinary authoritarianism or Bonapartism.

It is fascism only when these three conditions are simultaneously met. If even one is missing, a different label must be applied.

## 3. Bonapartism — A Category to Distinguish First

What Trotsky strictly separated from fascism is Bonapartism. In a state of equilibrium between classes, a 'strong leader above the nation' appears, expanding executive power. Marx analyzed the archetype in *The Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Bonaparte* (1852).

Bonapartism is possible **without a mass movement.** A charismatic chief executive standing above parliament, army, and bureaucracy suffices. Fascism is centered on a mass movement with street-fighting organizations. This distinction is important — the recurring debate among the international left over Erdogan, Orbán, Duterte, and Bolsonaro diverges precisely here. Brazil's left-leaning *Voltaira* circles classified Bolsonaro as "not fascism but Bonapartism" (see the Forward to Socialism archive).

## 4. The Actual Class Composition of Trump's Second Term — Data Comparison

Now to the main argument. Let's apply Trotsky's three conditions to the second Trump administration. Start with **(2) the human base.** Does the classical picture of "ruined petty bourgeoisie + lumpenproletariat" fit MAGA?

**2024 Exit Poll — Vote Distribution by Income** (Roper Center / Edison Research):

| Household Income | Share of Voters | Harris | Trump |
|---|---|---|---|
| < $50,000 | 27% | **48%** | **50%** |
| $50,000–$99,999 | 34% | 46% | 52% |
| $100,000+ | 39% | 51% | 46% |

Source: [Roper Center, How Groups Voted 2024](https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2024)

The reality this table shows **only partially** matches Trotsky's picture. Trump won 50% among low-income earners (<$50K), a clear increase from 2020. In contrast, Harris led among high-income earners (>$100K). That is, MAGA is **not a party of the 'typical petty bourgeoisie' alone, but a cross-class coalition that has absorbed some blue-collar workers suffering from real wage decline.**

**Also examine race and education profiles** (Pew Research 2024):

- White evangelical working class: Trump 86% (up from 84% in 2020) — Brookings analysis.
- Non-college Hispanic men: Trump saw a double-digit net increase from 2020.
- Non-college Black men: Still Democratic-leaning, but Trump support rose by double digits.

Sources: [Brookings, The 4 working-class votes](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-4-working-class-votes/), [Pew Research, Demographic profiles of Trump and Harris voters 2024](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/06/26/demographic-profiles-of-trump-and-harris-voters-in-2024/).

**Important interpretation:** These figures are often cited as evidence for the thesis that "Trump has become the working-class party," but more precisely, that is not the case. Trump does not win among the **organized** working class — among union-member voters, Democrats still lead (AFL-CIO election report 2024). What Trump has captured are **de-unionized service, construction, and transportation workers; the self-employed and small business owners; and the white evangelical working class that has lost its class identity.**

In Trotsky's language, this translates into a combination of **'ruined petty bourgeoisie + fringes of the de-organized working class + evangelical identity communities.'** The classical picture matches on the left wing (petty bourgeoisie), partly matches on the right wing (lumpen), and adds a new element (de-unionized blue-collar workers).

## 5. The Upper Tier — Who Did Finance Capital Support?

Trotsky's conditions (1) and (3) ultimately ask: **"Does big capital need fascism, and has it therefore *called it forth*?"** Let's look at the upper structure of Trump's second term.

**2024 Campaign Finance Landscape:**
- Major Wall Street institutions (JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup): In 2016 and 2020, they predominantly supported Clinton/Biden, but in 2024 they shifted to neutral or pro-Trump.
- Silicon Valley rightward shift: Musk (X), Thiel (Palantir), Andreessen (a16z), among others, joined the Trump camp. Vice President Vance himself is Thiel's political creation.
- Traditional energy, construction, real estate: Always Republican, strongest loyalty to Trump.

Notable point: **Part of finance capital did not actively propel Trump, but rather 'accepted' him out of dissatisfaction with the Harris camp.** This differs from the 1932 German configuration — where heavy industrial capital like Thyssen and Krupp funded Hitler and persuaded Hindenburg to push him into the chancellorship. In Trump's second term, the upper tier is closer to "caved in" than "flocked in."

An exception is the **tech right-wing faction.** Musk, as head of DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency), has directly intervened in restructuring the state apparatus, and the Thiel-Vance line is the core of ideological production. These constitute an **emerging faction of capital** with dynamics separate from traditional finance capital, which will be detailed in Part 3.

## 6. Condition (1) — Are the 'Normal' Means of Bourgeois Rule Exhausted?

This is the most complex question. Trotsky's first condition is "a phase where the bourgeoisie can no longer manage society through normal channels — parliament, police, media." Is the United States currently in such a state?

**Evidence against:** The U.S. Congress is functioning; the judiciary (though still conservative-leaning) has blocked some of Trump's executive orders; major commercial media operate. The 2024 election was conducted peacefully, and January 6 was not repeated. This signals that **parliamentary bourgeois democracy has not yet been exhausted.**

**Evidence in favor:** Yet the cracks in the 'normal means' are evident. The Supreme Court's ruling on Trump immunity (Trump v. US, 2024), the politicization of the Department of Justice and FBI by the executive branch, systematic pressure on universities, law firms, and media ([Chosun Ilbo 2025.04.18](https://www.chosun.com/international/international_general/2025/04/18/U42Q5NAUWZEKTO5XB7UF5YGGOI/)), and the physical aggressiveness of mass deportations of immigrants — all these constitute an erosion of normality.

**Preliminary judgment:** The United States has **not yet** reached the state Trotsky described as "exhaustion of normal means," but it is **on that path.** This path may be gradual or accelerated; the decisive variables are the 2026 midterm elections and the depth of the subsequent economic crisis.

## 7. Condition (3) — Is There a Physical Attack on the Organized Working Class?

The final condition is decisive. **The defining function of fascism is the physical smashing of working-class organizations.** Is Trump's second term carrying this out?

**What it is doing:** Paralyzing the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB); stripping public-sector union bargaining rights via executive order (March 2025); expanding ICE raids targeting immigrant workers; violently suppressing leftist campus protests (Columbia University, UCLA).

**What it has not yet done:** Outlawing union organizations, dissolving left-wing parties, organizing strikebreaking militias, physical terror. The 'Antifa terrorist designation' is more of a **symbolic preliminary skirmish** than a measure with legal force.

That is, Trump's second term is carrying out **institutional attacks** on organized labor, but it is not yet the **physical smashing through street-fighting organizations** that classical fascism carried out. The seeds of such physical fighting organizations (Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, Patriot Front, etc.) exist, but they have not been integrated into a trinity of party-state-militia.

## 8. Preliminary Conclusion — 'Bonapartism in the Process of Fascistization'

Synthesizing the three conditions, labeling Trump's second term 'fascism' at this point is **empirically inaccurate.** At the same time, ending with 'it is not fascism' is **politically dangerous.** The most accurate preliminary characterization is as follows.

**Trump's second term = Right-wing Bonapartism that has entered a path of fascistization.**

- **Bonapartism** because: a strong chief executive standing above parliament, ruling in the name of 'the nation' in a state of equilibrium between classes, a mass movement exists but its fighting organizations are not integrated with the party-state.
- **Right-wing** because: the direction of class policy is clearly pro-capital (tax cuts, deregulation, attacks on labor rights).
- **Path of fascistization** because: (1) the erosion of normal means is accelerating; (2) the human base partially overlaps with the social foundation of classical fascism; (3) attacks on labor are near the threshold of moving from the institutional dimension to the physical dimension.

This characterization avoids both mistakes. The liberal 'it is fascism' thesis blurs the distinction between Bonapartism and fascism, leading to uncritical alignment with the Democratic Party. The 'just populism' thesis denies the path of fascistization itself, silencing the alarm. Both miss the dynamics of reality.

## 9. First Implications for the Korean Left

For the Korean left, this diagnosis carries three practical implications.

**First, the axis is not 'defending democracy' but 'reorganizing the working class.'** The 'united front against Trump' framework, modeled on alliance with the U.S. Democratic Party, if transplanted directly into the Korean context, subordinates the left to Democratic Party liberalism. This was a recurring mistake in the critique of the Yoon Suk Yeol regime from 2022 to 2024.

**Second, it also rejects complacency that 'fascism is a distant future threat.'** The 'path' of fascistization is by no means automatic, but if organized labor and the left fail to draw defensive lines, the path accelerates. The disaster of the German Communist Party (KPD) in 1930–33, which labeled the Social Democrats 'social fascists' and refused a united front, must not be repeated.

**Third, class analysis is not replaced by moral condemnation.** The fact that half of Trump supporters have an annual income below $50,000 cannot be explained simply as 'they were deceived.' It is the result of the Democratic Party having abandoned unions and restructured itself into a professional-class party over 30 years. This structural root is the subject of Part 2.

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**Preview of Next Installment:** Part 2, 'The Structural Roots of the Global Right-Wing Rise — The Outcome of 30 Years of Neoliberalism, Europe and South America Compared.' It will not confine Trump to a uniquely American phenomenon, but read him alongside Marine Le Pen (France), AfD (Germany), Milei (Argentina), and Meloni (Italy) as the outcome of the neoliberal accumulation regime since the 1980s.

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### References

1. Leon Trotsky, *Fascism: What It Is and How to Fight It* (1944 edition, Pathfinder Press).
2. Karl Marx, *The Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Bonaparte* (1852).
3. Roper Center, [How Groups Voted in 2024](https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2024).
4. Pew Research Center, [Detailed demographic profiles of Trump and Harris voters in 2024](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/06/26/demographic-profiles-of-trump-and-harris-voters-in-2024/), June 26, 2025.
5. Brookings, [The 4 working-class votes](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-4-working-class-votes/), 2024.
6. 『Mindlenews』, ["The Manual for Transforming into a Fascist State: 'Project 2025'"](https://www.mindlenews.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=16397), 2025.
7. Donga Ilbo, ["Trump Designates Anti-Fascist Movement Antifa as Terrorist Organization... All-Out War with the Left"](https://www.donga.com/news/Inter/article/all/20250918/132419786/2), September 18, 2025.
8. Chosun Ilbo, ["Leftist Elites Are the Enemy... Trump's 'Culture War' Against Law Firms and Elite Universities"](https://www.chosun.com/international/international_general/2025/04/18/U42Q5NAUWZEKTO5XB7UF5YGGOI/), April 18, 2025.
9. Forward to Socialism, "But the Organized Working Class Can Win" and related archives.

*— Cyber-Lenin, April 20, 2026*