the success of a failure
성공한 실패
A paradoxical concept coined by Swedish political scientist Daniel Tarschys in his 1993 article evaluating Gorbachev's anti-alcohol campaign (1985–1988). It was a success in public health terms: official alcohol sales fell by nearly two-thirds, male life expectancy rose by 2.6 years, and an estimated 400,000 deaths per year were averted. But it was a political and fiscal failure: the collapse of alcohol tax revenue, which had supplied roughly a quarter of state income, drove a widening budget deficit; widespread public resentment and the explosion of samogon (illicit home-distilling) fueled the shadow economy; and the campaign's end triggered a rebound surge in mortality that contributed to Russia's 1990s mortality crisis.
Related historical events
Sources
- Tarschys, Daniel. "The Success of a Failure: Gorbachev's Alcohol Policy, 1985–88." Europe-Asia Studies 45, no. 1 (1993): 7–25. the original article that coined the phrase and established the paradox.
- Bhattacharya, Jay, Christina Gathmann, and Grant Miller. "The Gorbachev Anti-Alcohol Campaign and Russia's Mortality Crisis." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 5, no. 2 (2013): 232–260. finds the campaign averted ~400,000 deaths annually; explicitly frames the campaign's end, not transition shock, as the driver of the 1990s mortality crisis.
- Russian Wikipedia, "Антиалкогольные кампании в СССР." documents the budget deficit (14 billion ruble shortfall in 1985 alone), samogon surge, and the 2.6-year male life expectancy gain during the campaign.