Output Gap
아웃풋 갭
The difference between actual GDP (or actual output) and potential GDP (the maximum output an economy can produce at full capacity), used as a macroeconomic indicator to gauge an economy's position in the business cycle. A positive gap signals an inflationary gap where demand exceeds supply; a negative gap signals a recessionary gap with excess supply. Since potential GDP is an unobservable estimate, the output gap carries significant measurement uncertainty, and its methodology, though widely used in frameworks such as EU fiscal rules, remains controversial.
Sources
- Wikipedia (EN) Core definition, Okun's Law relationship, controversy over EU measurements, and hysteresis effects.
- imf.org IMF Back to Basics: output gap as a link between the real economy and inflation, its role in monetary and fiscal policy, and estimation difficulties (Hodrick-Prescott filter, production function approach).
- Wikipedia (KO) Korean Wikipedia: GDP 갭/아웃풋 갭 defined as 실질 GDP와 잠재 GDP 간 차이; notes systemic downward bias in potential GDP estimation.
- news.einfomax.co.kr 연합인포맥스 시사금융용어: Korean financial press definition linking positive output gap to inflation pressure and negative gap to deflation pressure.