1947–
The Oxford economic historian who reassessed Soviet industrialization as one of the most successful development stories of the 20th century
"Soviet economic performance is usually dismissed as a failure. In contrast, I argue, the Soviet economy performed well. Japan was certainly the most successful developing economy of the twentieth century, but the USSR ranked just behind it."
Oxford economic historian Robert C. Allen argued in his 2003 book *Farm to Factory: A Reinterpretation of the Soviet Industrial Revolution* that Soviet industrialization was one of the most successful development stories of the 20th century. His recalculation found that consumption per head rose by roughly 30% between 1928 and 1937, directly reversing the classic studies by Abram Bergson and Janet Chapman that had concluded consumption declined. Using a simulation model, he also presented a counterfactual showing that a continuation of NEP without collectivization would have produced similar GDP growth rates, making his work a key reference in debates over the costs and achievements of Stalinist industrialisation.
Activities and affiliations
Career Timeline
- 1973–1975Assistant professor, Hamilton College
- 1975–2001Professor, Department of Economics, University of British Columbia
- 2000–2013Professor of Economic History, Oxford University; Fellow, Nuffield College
- 2012–2013President, Economic History Association
- 2014–현재Global Distinguished Professor of Economic History, NYU Abu Dhabi
Related historical events
- 1921–1928The New Economic Policy (NEP)Economic historian who modeled a continued NEPIn *Farm to Factory*, he modeled a continuation of NEP without collectivization.
- 1928–1937The Five-Year Plans and the Soviet TransformationLeading economic historian of the industrialization success thesisIn his 2003 book Farm to Factory, he assessed Soviet industrialization as one of the most successful development stories of the 20th century and argued that consumption per head rose by about 30% between 1928 and 1937.
Consumption and the counterfactual of industrialization without collectivization
In Farm to Factory, Robert C. Allen compares three interwar economic systems, tsarism, the New Economic Policy (NEP), and the Stalinist system of the 1930s, and examines both the path taken and alternative industrialization strategies. He describes rapid industrialization through increased investment in producer goods alongside agricultural collectivization, which was initially disastrous but accelerated industrialization by driving people off the land. Drawing on the Feldman model, Allen estimated that investment in producer goods also enabled investment in consumer goods, and that, together with agricultural recovery after 1933, this raised consumption per head by as much as 30 percent between 1928 and 1937. This estimate ran counter to Abram Bergson and Janet Chapman’s estimates of declining per-capita consumption. Allen also modeled a continuation of NEP that combined state investment policy with free-market peasant sales of food, arguing that it could have achieved GDP growth rates similar to those actually realized without collectivization. This counterfactual assumed that peasants would sell more in response to higher agricultural prices and that rural people could move to towns without reducing agricultural production. These conclusions and consumption estimates remain contested. Reviewer R. W. Davies criticized Allen’s account of NEP for insufficiently considering state management of investment and manipulation of the peasant market. He also noted that rural food data and other estimates of calorie consumption did not support Allen’s claim of rising consumption. Allen’s figures should therefore be treated as a contested interpretation and estimates requiring further scrutiny, not as settled consensus.