Supercycle
슈퍼사이클
An ultra-long boom phase in which commodity or sectoral asset prices rise above their long-term trend for a decade or more. Structural demand shifts (industrialization, rearmament, energy transition, AI infrastructure buildout) outpace supply expansion. Four global commodity supercycles have been observed since the late 19th century. Unlike ordinary business cycles, supercycles are driven by structural demand transformation and share a theoretical lineage with Kondratiev long waves.
In depth
Definition
A supercycle is an ultra-long price cycle in which commodity prices move from trough to peak and back to trough. The Korea Center for International Finance (2021) defines it as 'an ultra-long price cycle spanning trough→peak→trough,' with a typical cycle lasting 30–40 years. In practice, the term often refers specifically to the upswing phase.
Historical Cases
Four global commodity supercycles have been recorded since the late 19th century: (1) late-1800s US industrialization and oil adoption, (2) 1930s global rearmament before World War II, (3) 1960s reindustrialization of Europe and Japan, (4) late 1990s–early 2010s China's industrialization and WTO accession.
Theoretical Background
The concept is closely related to the long-wave theory proposed by Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratiev in 1926. Kondratiev waves, hypothesized as 50–60 year economic cycles, are also called 'supercycles' in English. Joseph Schumpeter named them 'Kondratieff waves' in 1939 and attributed them to the bunching of basic innovations.
Modern Extension
Since the 2020s, the supercycle concept has expanded beyond commodities to describe structurally-driven, decade-spanning booms in specific industrial sectors: semiconductors, defense, power equipment, and renewable energy. The post-pandemic convergence of green new deal policies, AI and data center infrastructure buildout, and global rearmament has given rise to a 'multi-supercycle' discourse. Goldman Sachs identified 2022 as the start of a metals supercycle; by 2025–2026, the AI boom and the Iran war were analyzed as structural drivers respectively underpinning semiconductor/power-equipment and defense supercycles.
Sources
- Wikipedia (EN) Kondratiev waves are also called supercycles; long-wave economic cycles of 40–60 years hypothesized by Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratiev in the 1920s.
- corporatefinanceinstitute.com CFI definition: a supercycle is a prolonged period of strong economic growth leading to sustained demand for commodities beyond what producers can supply; four recorded since the late 19th century.
- eiec.kdi.re.kr 국제금융센터(2021): 원자재 슈퍼사이클의 정의(저점→정점→저점의 초장기 가격순환주기) 및 19세기 말 이후 4차례 관측, 그린뉴딜發 다섯 번째 상승사이클 가능성 검토.