Supply Chain Rerouting
공급망 재배선
A structural phenomenon whereby tariffs and trade barriers do not eliminate trade flows but reorganize them into geographic detour routes through third countries. After the 2018 US–China trade war, the canonical pattern is Chinese intermediate goods and components flowing into third countries such as Vietnam, Mexico, and Thailand (where they undergo assembly, processing, or relabeling) before re-export to the United States as finished goods. The phenomenon spans a spectrum from legitimate FDI-based production relocation to simple transshipment and origin fraud, exposing the limits of tariffs alone as a tool for severing supply-chain dependence.
Sources
- rhg.com Rhodium Group analysis of trade diversion/rerouting in the US-China trade war context, with Jacob Viner's trade diversion concept as intellectual foundation
- nomuraconnects.com Nomura analysis (March 2025) defining third-country circumvention and identifying Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia as most at risk
- Wikipedia (EN) Jacob Viner's classic trade diversion concept (1950), the intellectual precursor distinguishing efficient from inefficient trade reallocation
- hbs.edu HBS working paper 'Exports in Disguise? Trade Rerouting During the US–China Trade War' providing empirical measurement of rerouting levels
- reuters.com Reuters reporting on Vietnam's record simultaneous surges in imports from China and exports to the US