Seniority-Biased Technological Change (SBTC) / 연공편향 기술변화 · 2020년대–현재

연공편향 기술변화

Seniority-Biased Technological Change

생성형 AI 도입이 모든 연령대에 균등하게 영향을 미치지 않고, 청년(주니어) 노동 수요는 위축시키는 반면 경력직(시니어) 노동 수요는 유지하거나 증가시키는 기술변화 패턴을 가리키는 노동경제학 개념이다. 전통적 '숙련편향 기술변화'(SBTC)가 학력·숙련에 따른 분화를 설명했다면, 연공편향은 동일 직종 내에서도 연차에 따라 AI의 대체·보완 효과가 갈리는 현상에 주목한다. 신입이 담당하던 정형화된 지식 업무(문서 작성, 데이터 입력, 기초 분석)는 AI로 빠르게 대체되는 반면, 시니어의 암묵지·조직 관리·맥락 이해 능력은 AI가 대체하기 어려워 보완재로 작동한다는 것이 핵심 메커니즘이다.

한계생산력설

출처

  1. bok.or.kr Bank of Korea BOK Issue Note No. 2025-30 (2025.10.30): 'AI 확산과 청년고용 위축: 연공편향(seniority-biased) 기술변화를 중심으로' — the foundational Korean-language empirical study documenting that 98.6% of youth job losses (211,000) over three years occurred in AI high-exposure industries, while 50+ employment grew by 209,000, with 69.9% of gains in those same high-exposure industries. Coined and defined the Korean term 연공편향 기술변화.
  2. papers.ssrn.com Hosseini, Seyed M. and Guy Lichtinger (2025), 'Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change: Evidence from U.S. Résumé and Job Posting Data,' Harvard University working paper. The academic origin paper: using LinkedIn résumé data covering 62 million workers across 285,000 firms (2015–2025), finds that following GenAI adoption, junior employment declines sharply (~10% after six quarters) in adopting firms relative to non-adopters, while senior employment remains largely unchanged. The decline is concentrated in GenAI-exposed occupations and driven by slower hiring rather than increased separations.
  3. digitaleconomy.stanford.edu Stanford Digital Economy Lab seminar (2025.09.22): Hosseini and Lichtinger presented their working paper establishing the seniority-biased technological change framework at the DEL Seminar Series.
  4. bok.or.kr Bank of Korea blog post (2025.11.06): 'AI 확산 초기, 청년고용은 왜 감소하는가?' — popular exposition of the BOK findings, explaining the mechanism: junior workers perform codified, book-learning knowledge tasks automatable by AI, while seniors possess tacit knowledge and social skills that make AI complementary rather than substitutive.
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